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US dollar/Swiss franc analysis and forecasts: 20th February 2008
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Market analysis
The Swiss economic indicators have suggested a slowdown in growth with a drop in the KOF leading index while other confidence indicators have weakened more sharply over the past two months.
The National Bank has expressed some concerns over the economic outlook, but is still expecting steady growth for the year. The most likely outcome is a steady monetary policy in the short term, but there will be some speculation over a cut in rates if conditions deteriorate.
The franc will continue to gain support from fears over global credit risks and reduced confidence in global growth prospects and these fears will provide important protection. Overall, the dollar should be able to resist significant losses from current levels against the Swiss currency.
Risk factors:
Increased risk aversion could propel the franc sharply higher.
A major US banking failure would support the Swiss currency
An easing of credit-related stresses would reduce near-term franc support.
Forecasts:
| Currency | Spot (20/02) | 1-month forecast | 3-month forecast | 6-month forecast |
| US$/CHF | 1.1000 | 1.1050 | 1.1350 | 1.1450 |