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15-06-09
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Lower capital inflows. US long-term capital inflow fell to US$11.2bn in April from US$55.4bn the previous month as some central bank Treasury holdings were reduced and this will tend to weaken dollar sentiment
09-06-09. Sterling recovers. The easing of political tensions over UK Prime Minster Brown has allowed Sterling to recover ground against the dollar
05-06-09. Payrolls surprise. The decline in US non-farm employment was substantially lower than expected with a drop of 345,000 for May after a revised 504,000 drop previously. In contrast, the unemployment rate rose to 9.4% from 8.9%. The net impact will be to support near-term risk appetite which will weaken the dollar, although this may not be sustained.
04-06-09 BOE on hold. The Bank of England has left interest rates on hold at 0.50% and has maintained the current quantitative easing programme
03-06-09. UK PMI rises. The UK PMI index for the services sector rose to 51.7 in May, the first reading above 50 since March 2008 which will reinforce UK recovery hopes
01-06-09. ISM rises. The National PMI index for the US manufacturing sector rose to 42.8 in may from 40.1 the previous month which will help maintain near-term optimism over the global economy. Perversely, this is again liable to be dollar negative
29-05-09. Weak Chicago PMI. The Chicago PMI index fell to 34.9 in May from 40.1 previously which will reinforce fears over the auto sector
28-05-09. Jobless claims fall. US jobless claims fell slightly to 623,000 in the latest week from 636,000 while continuing claims were at a record high. A stronger figure for durable goods orders was offset by a substantial downward revision. The data is unlikely to spark any improvement in risk appetite
27-05-09. US home sales rise. US existing home sales increased to an annual rate of 4.68mn in April from 4.57mn. A further rise in inventories will offset any improvement in confidence triggered by the headline data.
26-05-09. US confidence rises. US consumer confidence rose to 54.9 in May from a revised 40.8 the previous month, the highest sine September 2008 which will underpin risk appetite
21-05-09. UK rating warning. Standard + Poor's has put the UK credit rating on negative watch which has pushed the UK currency sharply lower
20-05-09. FOMC minutes. The FOMC minutes recorded that it saw the potential to buy more assets which will tend to keep the dollar on the defensive in the short term, especially with the Fed also downgrading its economic forecasts.
19-05-09. Weaker US housing. US housing starts fell to an annual rate of 0.46mn in April from 0.52mn previously which will dampen optimism slightly, but should not have a major impact.
ZEW index roses. The German ZEW index rose to 31.1 in May from 13.0 the previous month which was the seventh consecutive increase and will maintain greater confidence in the global economy which will underpin risk appetite.
UK inflation down. The CPI inflation rate fell to 2.3% in April from 2.9% with a -1.2% rate for the RPI, but Sterling moves will continue to be influenced strongly be degrees of risk appetite
15-05-09. US index roses. The US New York PMI index rose to -4.6 in May from -14.6 and this was the highest reading since August 2008 which will maintain hopes of economic stabilisation
14-05-09. Jobless claims rise. US jobless claims rose to 637,000 in the latest week from 605,000 as auto-sector layoffs increased and this will tend to undermine risk appetite to some extent.
13-05-09. US sales down. US retail sales fell 0.4% in April with a 0.5% underlying decline which will dampen risk appetite
BOE concerns. The Bank of England has issued very cautious comments on the economy in the quarterly inflation report which will tend to lessen Sterling support
08-05-09. Payrolls decline. US non-farm payrolls fell by 539,000 for April with unemployment rising to 8.9% from 8.5%. The payroll decline was slightly less than expected, butt he data on weekly hours was very weak. Risk appetite should be slightly stronger which will help underpin the Euro.
07-05-09. ECB action. The ECB will take additional action by buying Euro-denominated covered bonds which will tend to undermine the Euro, but the impact will be lessened by the small amount of purchases
ECB cut. The ECB has cut interest rates by 0.25% to 1.00%
BOE action. The Bank of England left interest rates on hold at 0.50%, but has increased the amount of quantitative easing and this is a negative factor for Sterling
06-05-09. US ADP losses lower. The US ADP report recorded a decline of 491,000 for employment in April from a revised 708,000 the previous month which will help underpin risk appetite
UK PMI rises. The rise in PMI index to 48.7 in April from 45.5 in March will maintain a more positive short-term tone for Sterling
01-05-09. US PMI rises. The increase in US PMI to 40.3 will help improve risk appetite
Firm UK PMI index. The UK PMI index maintained the more positive rend with a rise to 42.9 in April which was an 8-month high
30-04-09. Jobless claims slightly lower. US jobless claims fell to 631,000 in the latest week from 645,000 previously which should not have a major market impact
Fed on hold. The Federal Reserve has left interest rates on hold at 0.00 - 0.25% and also left the amount of bond buying unchanged which should provide some degree of dollar support while risk appetite should also improve slightly as the Fed was slightly more optimistic over the outlook.
Weak US GDP. US GDP contracted at an annual rate of 6.1% for the first quarter of 2009 which will trigger some move into defensive assets
28-04-09. US confidence rises. US consumer confidence rose to 39.2 in April from a revised 26.9 previously which will help underpin risk appetite
CBI surge. The CBI reported a retail sales balance of +3 in April from -44 the previous month which will provide some Sterling support, although the data may have been distorted by seasonal factors.
27-04-09. Dollar support. Fears over a swine fever, outbreak has provided some degree of support for the dollar and yen
24-04-09. US home sales up. US new home sales were little changed at 356,000 in March with the February data revised up. Inventories fell sharply which will boost confidence in a fragile recovery
to Weak GDP. UK GDP fell by 1.9% in the first quarter of 2009 which will maintain fears over the economy.
IFO rise. The German IFO index rose to 83.7 in April from 82.1 which will maintain a slightly more robust Euro tone for now
23-04-09. US home sales dip. US existing home sales edged down to an annual rate of 4.57mn in march from 4.71mn. Prices rose for the month, but fell 17% over the year
US claims rose. US jobless claims rose to 640,000 in the latest week from 613,000 previously while continuing claims rose to another record high at 6.137mn which will tend to undermine risk appetite slightly and curb optimism over US trends
22-04-09. High UK borrowing. The announcement of a 12% of GDP budget deficit in the UK budget and higher taxes has undermined Sterling
UK unemployment rises. UK unemployment rose by 73,700 in March which was a lower increase than expected and will provide some degree of Sterling relief. The impact will be offset by very high government borrowing figures.
21-04-09.-BOC rate cut. The Bank of Canada has cut rates by 0.25% and issued a downbeat statement which will undermine market sentiment
ZEW rises. The German ZEW index has risen to +13 in April from -3.5 previously which should offer some Euro protection
20-04-09. Euro also weak. Further uncertainty over ECB policies and weaker metals prices has pushed the Euro to a 1-month low
Weaker Sterling. Sterling has weakened on uncertainty over the UK annual budget due on Wednesday.
17-04-09. SNB warning. The Swiss National Bank has again warned that its intervention policy will continue for as long as necessary and this has weakened the franc on Friday
16-04-09. Mixed US data. The US data was mixed with a renewed decline in housing starts while jobless claims eased slightly to 610,000 in the latest week. The net impact is likely to be a small boost to risk appetite in the near term
15-04-09. Output falls. Industrial production fell 1.5%, the same decline as the previous month which will tend to undermine risk appetite slightly
Subdued capital inflows. US net long-term capital inflows improved to US$22bn in February, but total flows were again negative which is not a positive dollar factor
US CPI down. US consumer prices fell 0.1% in March for the first annual decline since 1955, but there was a core 0.2% increase in prices.
ECB action. Comments from ECB member Weber suggests that the ECB will announce fresh non-standard measures in may and this will tend to undermine the Euro.
Sterling gains. Sterling has retained a firm tone and pushed to challenge resistance levels above 1.50 against the dollar.
14-04-09. US sales fall. US retail sales fell 1.1% with a core 0.9% decline which will tend to undermine risk appetite
09-04-09. US trade deficit falls. The US trade deficit fell sharply to US$26.0bn for February from US$36.2bn previously. Exports rose slightly while imports continued to decline sharply. The net impact is likely to be marginally dollar negative initially, but will offer longer-term support
BOE on hold. The Bank of England left interest rates on hold at 0.50% and will continue the GBP75bn asset-purchase scheme which should not have a major market impact
08-04-09. Downbeat Fed. The Federal Reserve was downbeat over economic prospects with a further downgrading of GDP forecasts which will reinforce the mood of greater caution
Risk remains important. The major currency pairs are still being driven to a large extent by degrees of risk appetite
07-04-09. Euro subdued. The Euro has maintained a weaker tone as uncertainties over the Euro-zone economy persist
UK output down. UK manufacturing output fell by 0.9% for February which was slightly better than expected and should provide slight Sterling support
RBA cut. The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.00%. The Bank of Japan has left interest rates on hold at 0.10%
06-04-07. Consolidation set in. After initial gains, there has been some consolidation in the currency markets with the Euro coming off highs as risk aversion increases slightly
03-04-09. ISM decline. The US ISM services index weakened to 40.8 in March from 41.6 previously with the orders and employment components both deteriorating which will tend to undermine risk appetite at least to some extent
US payrolls decline. US non-farm payrolls fell 663,000 in March and unemployment rose to 8.5%, with both very close to market expectations. Lower weekly hours is a negative sign for the economy while budget constraints also pushed government employment down.
UK PMI rises. The UK PMI services sector PMI rose to 45.5 in March from 43.2 which will continue to provide some Sterling support
02-04-09. ECB holds back. The ECB has not announced quantitative easing measures at this meeting, but has said they will be up for discussion again at the next meeting
ECB rate surprise. The ECB has cut interest rates by 0.25% to 1.25%, contrary to expectations of a 0.50% cut and the Euro has spiked higher. Comments on quantitative easing will still be critical
G20 hopes. Speculation that the G20 could agree a big IMF bond issue has underpinned risk appetite which has lessened defensive demand for the dollar
01-04-09. US ISM edges higher. The ISM manufacturing index edged higher to 36.3 in March from 35.8. The employment component remained very weak, but the orders component rose to the highest level since August 2008 which will increase hopes that the sector can stabilise.
Weak ADP report. The US ADP employment decline was a record 742,000 for March after a 706,000 decline the previous month which will undermine risk appetite to some extent
UK PMI higher. The UK PMI index rose to 39.1 in March from 34.7 which will prove a short-term boost for Sterling
31-03-09. Weak Chicago PMI. The Chicago PMI index weakened further to 31.4 in March from 34.2, illustrating that manufacturing difficulties are still severe
Yen weaker. The yen has weakened on Tuesday with selling pressure ahead of the fiscal year-end
30-03-09. US auto failure?. The US administration has rejected GMs survival plan and the chef executive has resigned. Speculation that GM may be forced into bankruptcy has undermined risk appetite
27-03-09. Dollar gains. Verbal rhetoric that the dollar will maintain the dominant reserve currency has helped trigger a further recovery against the Euro.
26-03-09. Jobless claims rise. US jobless claims rose to 652,000 in the latest week from 6444,00 previously while continuing clams were at a fresh record high which does not suggest any near-term labour-market improvement
Weak UK sales. UK retail sales fell 1.9% in February after a run of stronger than expected releases which will undermine Sterling
25-03-09. Geithner comments. Reported comments from US Treasury Geithner than he was open to the Chinese SDR reserve plans undermined the dollar sharply
Durables rise. US durable goods orders rose 3.4% in February after a revised 7.3% decline the previous month, the first gain for seven months
Weak CBI report. The UK CBI retail sales survey recorded a decline to -44 in March from -25 the previous month and expectations for April were weak which will tend to undermine Sterling.
24-03-09. BOE warning. The Bank of England has warned against any further significant fiscal stimulus by the government
Higher UK CPI. The UK consumer inflation rate was higher than expected at 3.2% in March while the RPI did not fall below zero. The data will provide near-term Sterling support, but will risk further undermining medium-term confidence.
23-03-09. US home sales rise. US existing home sales rose to an annual rate of 4.72mn in February while prices continued to decline with a 15.5% annual decline which will limit any improvement in risk appetite.
Treasury plans - The US Treasury has announced new plans to cleanse the banking sector with subsidies for private-sector involvement in buying toxic assets. The dollar has corrected from initial losses
20-03-09. Dollar correction. The dollar has attempted a weak correction stronger following very sharp losses following the Fed rate decision
19-03-09. Philly Fed improves. The Philadelphia Fed index rose to -35 in March from -41.3 the previous month, but the employment component was at a fresh record low
Dollar under pressure. The dollar remains under pressure following the Federal Reserve direct credit easing on Wednesday
18-03-09. Fed buys treasuries. The Federal Reserve will buy US$300bn of long-term Treasuries and this measure will undermine the dollar
Higher US CPI. US consumer prices rose 0.4% in February with a core 0.2% increase, but the dollar has not been able to gain any degree of support.
Weak UK data. The UK data was very weak with the claimant count rising by 138,400 for February while annual earnings growth weakened to 1.8% from 3.1% and this will tend to keep Sterling under pressure.
17-03-09. US housing stronger. US housing starts rose to an annualised rate of 0.58mn in February from 0.48mn while permits also rose to 0.55mn which will provide some immediate boost to risk appetite
16-03-09. Weak US data. The US New York manufacturing index fell to a record -38.2 in March while January net long-term capital inflows were -US$43bn with total flows at -US$148.9bn. The data will increase fears over the economy and will also tend to undermine risk appetite.
15-03-09. G20 stresses. The G20 countries have struggled to reach agreement on plans for a fiscal stimulus with German and French opposition and this has tended to undermine risk appetite in the early Asian trading on Monday.
Weaker CAD data. Canadian employment fell 82,600 in February while unemployment rose more sharply than expected to 7.7%, the highest since 2003. Fears over the economy will continue, but the Canadian dollar reaction should be limited
12-03-09. SNB action. The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 0.25% to 0.25% as expected and they also announced that they were intervening to buy sell the Swiss currency. This will continue to weaken the Swiss franc sharply.
Mixed US data. US retail sales was stronger than expected with a -0.1% decline for February with an underlying 0.7% increase, but the number of initial jobless claims rose again to 650,000 in the latest week. The net impact is liable to be a small improvement in risk appetite.
German output down. German industrial production fell 7.5% in January, maintaining the very weak run of manufacturing data
11-03-09. German orders slump. German industrial orders fell a further 8.0% in January after a revised 7.6% decline the previous month, illustrating the very severe downturn in exports
Wider UK deficit. The UK trade deficit widened to GBP7.7bn in January from GBP7.2bn the previous month which will reinforce pessimism over the economy
10-03-09. Stocks rally. US and global stock markets rallied strongly on Tuesday, but the Euro and Sterling failed to sustain gains
UK output falls. UK industrial output fell 2.6% in January while manufacturing output fell 2.9%, reinforcing the severe weakness in the industrial sector and this will not help Sterling.
09-03-09. Firm dollar. The dollar has gained renewed support on elevated risk aversion as global fears dominate the market
06-03-09. US employment slumps. US non-farm payrolls declined by 651,000 in February after a revised 655,000 decline the previous month while unemployment rose to 8.1% from 7.6% previously to the highest rate since 1983. The dollar is struggling to gain any defensive support
05-03-09. Lower jobless claims. Initial US jobless claims fell to 639,000 in the latest week from 670,000 which will provide some slight relief ahead of the Friday payroll report.
ECB cut. The ECB has cut interest rates by 0.50% to 1.50%
BOE cut. The Bank of England has cut interest rates by a further 0.50% to 0.50%, a fresh record low. The Bank stated that there was still a big risk of undershooting the inflation target in the medium term and announced a GBP75bn asset-purchase programme. The statement will be slightly negative for Sterling
BOE news. The Bank of England and Treasury will publish letters on quantitative easing with the BOE interest rate decision
04-03-09. US ISM little changed. The US ISM index for the services sector weakened to 41.6 for February from 42.9, although this was slightly better than expected. The employment index edged stronger to 37.3 from 34.4 which should ease pessimism over the Friday payroll data very slightly
ADP slump. US employment recorded a 697,000 decline according to the ADP survey after a revised 614,000 drop for January which will maintain fears over the Friday payroll report
CIPS edges firmer. The UK CIPS index for the services sector edged higher to 43.2 for February from 42.5 which will provide some slight relief over the UK economy
03-03-09. BOC cut. The Bank of Canada has cut interest rates by 0.50% to 0.50% and has suggested that further policy action may be required which will tend to undermine the Canadian dollar.
Weak UK PMI. The construction PMI index weakened further to a record low of 27.5 in February from 34.5 previously which will increase fears over the economy.
RBA on hold. The Reserve Bank of Australia has held interest rates at 3.25% rather than cutting them which will help underpin the Australian dollar
02-03-09. US ISM steady. The US ISM index was steady at 35.8 in February from 35.6 in January, but it still indicates a sharp contraction and the employment component weakened further which will limit any improvement to risk appetite.
Canada GDP drop. Canadian GDP fell 1.0% in December and the quarterly decline of 0.8% was the worst since 1991 which will keep CAD sentiment under pressure.
UK PMI falls. The UK PMI index dipped to 34.7 for the manufacturing sector from 35.8 which will reinforce pessimism, although it is no worse than other major economies