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Euro/dollar analysis and forecasts 25th April 2011
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Market analysis
The Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at extremely low levels for the next few months, but is likely to decide against further quantitative easing. There will be further speculation over medium-term reserve diversification away from the dollar and it will also be vulnerable to being used as a funding currency, especially with confidence very weak.
The Euro-zone economy will continue to be led by strong German growth in the short term. The ECB will consider further tightening, but the plans are liable to be over-shadowed by debt restructuring needs and fresh concerns over the banking sector.
Risk factors:
Severe Euro-zone banking-sector stresses would damage the Euro.
Reserve diversification is liable to be a persistent concern for the dollar.
Forecasts:
| Currency | Spot (25/04) | 1-month forecast | 3-month forecast | 6-month forecast |
| EUR/US$ | 1.4550 | 1.4350 | 1.3650 | 1.3200 |