27-01-12 - US GDP set for release

The latest US GDP data will be released on Friday with the first estimate for the fourth quarter.  Much of the sting has been taken out of the data by the Federal Reserve statement on Wednesday. Markets are only likely to react strongly if there is a much weaker than expected release.

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22-01-12:  Keeping fear at bay

The injection of liquidity into the financial sector has had the desired effect, but it will still be a tough battle to keep fear at bay given the underlying de-leveraging on a re-pricing of sovereign-debt risk    

Read more:  Weekly preview - Keeping fear in check

 

The Latest market alerts, data updates and expert analysis

MARKET UPDATE  - The Euro pushed to highs above 1.31 following the dovish Fed statement and extended gains in Europe on Thursday following reports that a Greek debt restructuring deal could be close.  26-01-12:  11.50 GMT

MARKET UPDATE  - Battle continues to rage around the 1.30 area in EUR/USD with firm buying support on dips. Overall risk appetite remains firm on reduced fears of a systemic crisis in the banking sector as the powerful liquidity operations work their short-term magic on market sentiment.  25-01-12:  03.20 GMT

MARKET UPDATE  - The Euro peaked near 1.3050 against the dollar before retreating again as there was a Euro-group rejection of Greek PSI terms. There has also been profit taking in risk currencies, although sentiment should remain relatively firm for now.  24-01-12:  02.55 GMT

MARKET UPDATE  - Risk appetite remains firmer and the Euro has continued to gain short-covering support from successful European bond auctions. The calmer conditions may not survive much longer given underlying stresses within the banking sector.  20-01-12:  06.35 GMT

MARKET UPDATE  - A measure of calm has retuned following Friday's high volatility triggered by the long-awaited Standard & Poor's downgrading of France. Risk appetite has been underpinned by slightly better than expected Chinese GDP data and the Euro has been lifted back to above 1.27 against the dollar by a covering of short positions. 17-01-12:  03.15 GMT

MARKET UPDATE  - The Euro was unable to sustain gains on Wednesday and dipped sharply after Fitch's warning that the ECB needs to do much more to prevent a cataclysmic Euro collapse.  EUR/USD dips to lows near 1.2660 before finding some tentative support. 12-01-12:  03.05 GMT

DATA ALERT - Overnight deposits at the ECB increase to a record EUR481.9bn. This is a huge figure and again illustrates a complete lack of confidence in the European bank. Lending levels are liable to remain under sustained pressure  10-01-12 :  08.50 GMT

MARKET UPDATE  - The US payroll data was stronger than expected with a 200,000 gain and unemployment at 8.5%. Generally a solid release as private-sector jobs, especially in transport were able to offset a further fall in government jobs.  Generally positive for the dollar which moves to 1.27 against the Euro. 06-01-12:  15.35 GMT

MARKET UPDATE  - The Euro has remained under pressure and retreated again in the Asian session on Friday with lows below 1.2770 for fresh 16-month lows.  Euro finding it hard to gain support even when risk appetite improves.  06-01-12:  06.10 GMT

MARKET UPDATE  - The Euro is subjected to renewed pressure with a sharp retreat back to near 1.29 while Sterling hits a 12-month high against the Euro. Euro-zone fears increase again as the scale of problems within the banking sector renews the fear factor.  04-01-12:  15.45 GMT

MARKET UPDATE  - Risk conditions remain more favourable at the start of the first full trading day of 2012 with firm Chinese data helping to boost spirits. AUD/USD gains ground and Euro also firmer, but deposits as the ECB increase back to near-record levels which is not a good sign.  03-01-12:  08.20 GMT

MARKET UPDATE  - EUR/USD continues to find support below 1.29 on the last trading day of 2011.  last-minute window dressing and repatriation flows will tend to dominate on Friday as liquidity levels remain extremely low.  30-12-11 :  02.40 GMT

MARKET UPDATE  - Market suddenly explodes into life with aggressive Euro and Sterling selling against the dollar. Big banks looking to trigger stop losses in thin trading have succeeded extremely well as initial move was provoked by a bigger than expected ECB balance sheet which suggested quantitative easing.  28-12-11 :  14.50 GMT

DATA ALERT - Overnight deposits at the ECB increase to a record EUR411.8bn. Partly due to year-end factors, but hardly a vote of confidence by the banks.  27-12-11 :  08.50 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - At the moment, the market is grinding towards halt ahead of the Christmas break with the Euro finding solid support on any dips towards 1.30 against the dollar. Risk conditions are solid with the Australian dollar retaining gains.  23-12-11 :  04.50 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro spiked higher to near 1.32 against the dollar on Wednesday before an equally sharp decline to the 1.3020 area as the US currency also regained lost ground. China will be an important focus given the possibility of more reserve ration requirement cuts in the short term.  22-12-11 :  03.30 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro has continued to fluctuate around the 1.30 level. There has been further solid EUR/USD buying support below 1.30 with markets reluctant to sell aggressively given the number of existing short speculative positions in the market.  20-12-11 :  07.00 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro has continued to fluctuate around the 1.30 level as pressure for consolidation after a sharp slide is offset by underlying fears surrounding the Euro-zone outlook as political tensions continue.  EUR/USD close to the 1.3025 level.  16-12-11 :  07.15 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - French ratings rumours have been doing the rounds again as players try to trigger more stop losses below the 1.30 EUR/USD level. Commodities generally under pressure as de-leveraging continues with little in the way of solid data.   14-12-11 :  15.15 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro remains vulnerable following another sharp sell-off in New York on Tuesday. The 1.30 level against the dollar will remain a short-term focus, especially with reports of strong option defence in this area. ECB data will be watched closely at the European open.  14-12-11 :  07.00 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - There has been a slight improvement in risk appetite with Wall Street opening higher, but the Euro is finding it very hard to participate and at the moment is still trapped below 1.32 against the dollar which suggests that a lack of yield support is weighing on the currency  13-12-11 :  15.20 GMT

MARKET ALERT - The Shanghai equity market weakens by close to 2% on Tuesday and dips to a 33-month low which helps maintain a negative underlying tone towards risk appetite ahead of the European open. latest ECB borrowing data will be watched closely to see if bank stresses are continuing to increase.  13-12-11 :  07.35 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro is drifting slightly weaker ahead of the European open on Monday, although ranges remain very narrow. There has been further speculation that Standard & Poor's will announce a downgrading of Euro-zone ratings.  12-12-11 :  06.40 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro failed to hold initial gains following the ECB interest rate decision and was subjected to heavy selling pressure as Bank president Draghi ruled out ECB financing of government debt. EUR/USD dipped to lows below 1.33 and a recovery quickly ran into trouble in Asia on Friday.  09-12-11 :  03.50 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - US dollar drifts weaker in early Europe on Wednesday. Markets looking for more progress at the EU Summit and are pricing in a slightly more optimistic stance which is lessening any defensive dollar demand, but ranges are narrow.  07-12-11 :  07.20 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The S&P warnings over European sovereign-debt downgrades put the Euro back on the defensive following the Merkel-Sarkozy mini-summit. Markets also staying very cautious over the banking sector and rumours of failure will continue to swirl around markets.  06-12-11 :  08.20 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro gained some support on improved risk appetite following the US unemployment decline, but it was unable to hold above 1.35 against the dollar and weakened again in late European trading on rumours of another Spanish sovereign-debt downgrade.  05-12-11 :  03.20 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro has been unable to hold its best levels as ECB head Draghi gives a sobering assessment of the situation to the European parliament and downplays the possibility of more aggressive ECB action. EUR/USD back to below 1.3450.   01-12-11 :  08.50 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - There has been a big turn-around in the market as central banks, led by the Federal Reserve act to boost market liquidity by effectively capping rates and easing funding stresses by increasing the availability of dollars. Risk appetite surges with strong gains on equity markets and there are sharp gains for the Euro and commodity currencies, especially after stronger than expected ADP employment data from the US.   30-11-11 :  15.35 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - There has been further choppy trading with EUR/USD unable to sustain the move to above 1.34 on Tuesday.  If the ECB is forced into any form of quantitative easing then the Euro-zone outlook may be safer, but there would still be the risk of heavy selling in the Euro.   30-11-11 :  08.20 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro has maintained a stronger tone and risk appetite also improves on the back of advancing stock markets. So far, EUR/USD has not been able to push above the 1.34 level as the pattern of rumours and denials continue.  28-11-11 :  15.05 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro and risk appetite receive an important boost with speculation that the IMF will announce a EUR600bn support package for Italy and Spain. EUR/USD hits a high around 1.3340 before retreating back to the 1.33 area as the reports are denied by the IMF.  28-11-11 :  03.55 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - German Chancellor Merkel's hard-line stance on the possibility of Eurobonds has further increase fears surrounding the Euro-zone economy and Euro.  EUR/USD dips to lows near 1.33 as Asian equity markets continue to decline. Very difficult to secure any near-term relief.  25-11-11 :  05.50 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro reached the 1.34 area following the German IFO index, but could not extend the recovery and has retreated back to below 1.3350 as German Chancellor Merkel holds firm against Eurobonds, contrary to some media report. Market may die during US trading due to Thanksgiving, but don't take it for granted.  24-11-11 :  13.50 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro dipped to lows of 1.3320 as risk appetite deteriorated again following a very weak German bond auction. There has been a tentative rebound to the 1.3380 area with players reluctant to extend short positions ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday.  24-11-11 :  02.50 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Mixed Euro-zone PMI readings with weak manufacturing data, but a recovery in services. Financial sector likely to dominate and some very tentative evidence that stresses are easing slightly in Europe, but confidence will remain fragile at best given the threat of a major banking-sector collapse.  23-11-11 :  08.55 GMT

DATA ALERT - The flash China HSBC manufacturing PMI index falls to 48.0 for November from 51.0 which will further undermine international risk appetite.  23-11-11 :  02.40 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro unable to hold above 1.3550 against the dollar and retreats to test support below 1.35 following worse than expected US GDP data which triggers a fresh bout of risk aversion.  Difficult to break out of prevailing ranges at this time, but Wednesday's Euro-zone data will be important.  22-11-11 :  16.20 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro benefits from another round of short covering and moves towards the 1.3550 area against the dollar. There's a pause in equity market selling on relief that the US credit rating has not been downgraded again as fiscal policy heads for deadlock again.  22-11-11 :  08.35 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Stronger than expected US new home sales data helps recue risk appetite and the Euro, especially as the amount of ECB bond purchases last week was held to just above EUR8bn with the market braced for a much bigger figure. Underlying sentiment still very fragile.  21-11-11 :  15.35 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro maintaining a generally subdued tone in Asia and early Europe on Monday with a dip to test support below 1.35 as equity markets also weaker. Markets will want to take the Euro lower to at least 1.3410, but it will not be easy given the extent of short Euro positions in the market.  21-11-11 :  08.10 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro pushes to a high above 1.36 on reports of increased support for the ECB financing the IMF, but gains then reverse in New York on rumours that the German Foreign Ministry is looking at the possibility of orderly defaults beyond Greece. EUR/USD back to 1.3530.  18-11-11 :  14.55 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Underlying risk appetite is still tending to deteriorate as commodity currencies remain under pressure. The Euro is still finding support on dips with a brif move back above the 1.35 level on speculation over additional ECB support.  18-11-11 :  08.50 GMT

DATA ALERT - Slightly disappointing headline Philly Fed index at 3.6 from 8.7 previously, but employment index higher and overall impact likely to be limited.  17-11-11 :  15.05 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Risk appetite gets a small boost from the US jobless claims data, but the general theme is one of ebb and flow as the ECB tries to keep a lid on peripheral yields. Underlying financial strains are still getting worse and risk appetite liable to fade again very quickly.  17-11-11 :  15.05 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - ECB bond buying has managed to keep some sort of lid on peripheral bond yields, but it is clear that underlying conditions are continuing to deteriorate as banking-sector pressures intensify.  EUR/USD recovers from five-week lows near 1.3420 and conditions will remain very choppy. 17-11-11 :  08.20 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - EUR/USD dipped to lows just below 1.3430 in Asia on Wednesday as risk appetite deteriorated further, but it then regained ground with a move back above 1.35 as Italian yields sharply. Credit default swaps are still widening which suggests that market relief may be short-lived. High volatility will remain the key element. 16-11-11 :  08.40 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro has stayed under pressure with a test of 1.35 against the dollar on fresh rumours of credit-rating downgrades and a general lack of confidence.  Pressure on the German government and ECB will continue to increase. 15-11-11 :  16.40 GMT

DATA UPDATE - The French and German GDP data in line with expectations. EUR/USD struggling to find any respite as Spanish, French and Belgian yield spreads are all at record highs against German bunds as underlying pressures continue.  15-11-11 :  08.05 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro has continued to retreat and has tested important levels below 1.3650 against the dollar as risk appetite also fades. There has been fresh upward pressure on Spanish and Italian yields while there have also been rumours of further tensions within the ECB over its bond-buying programme. 14-11-11 :  15.55 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro maintained its stronger tone at the Asian open on Monday as a new Italian government boosted risk appetite and Euro-zone fears eased, for now. There was selling pressure above 1.38 for EUR/USD with a retreat back to the 1.3750 area.  14-11-11 :  06.45 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Overall risk appetite remains slightly firmer as the Italian Senate passes austerity measures. Conditions should be very quiet with US bond markets on holiday, but could there be a nasty sting in the tail near the European close.  11-11-11 :  13.25 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - There is a reluctance to sell the Euro aggressively given the extent of short positions already and EUR/USD is able to make its way back above the 1.36 level. Central bank may look to take advantage of quiet conditions to push Italian yields lower which would also support the Euro. 11-11-11 :  07.00 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro can't hold a position close to 1.3650 and retreats back to the 1.3570 area, butt he overall mood is of consolidation as Italian yields retreat. Bundesbank taking a hard-line on peripheral bond buying and ECB denies emergency meeting, but pressure is still very much on. 10-11-11 :  16.00 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro remains firmly on the defensive and testing support near 1.35 as Euro-zone leaders struggle for a coherent response to the Italian crisis. Next focus will be the Italian bond auction due later on Thursday at around 10.00 GMT. 10-11-11 :  07.00 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - ECB has been in buying Italian bonds frequently, but finding it very difficult to gain any traction as yields continue to increase. French and Spanish yield spreads also rising. EUR/USD dips to lows below 1.3560 not helped by further delays in naming a new Greek Prime Minister.  09-11-11 :  15.40 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Italian yields explode upwards with the 10-year yield hitting 7.0%. Risk conditions also deteriorate sharply and EUR/USD weakens to below 1.37 with broad US dollar strength.  09-11-11 :  10.25 GMT

DATA ALERT - Big increase in overnight borrowing from the ECB according to the latest data to EUR7.7bn from EUR1.25bn previously. There will be fresh rumours of big distresses among the banks which will sap risk appetite.   09-11-11 :  08.10 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi promises to resign once austerity measures are approved after failing to gain sufficient support in parliament, but there are still weeks of uncertainty surrounding Italy and durable relief for the Euro-zone peripheral bonds looks unlikely. 09-11-11 :  03.50 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro remains resilient again during the session and testing levels above 1.38 despite reported Asian central bank selling. lacklustre conditions as markets await Greek and Italian political developments.  Dollar on the defensive all round with USD/JPY now down at 77.70. 08-11-11 :  14.35 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - EUR/USD is again blocked above 1.38, but selling pressure also contained as funds don't want to be caught out by another short-covering rally. Italy will continue to be the dominant short-term focus and risk appetite likely to remain generally fragile.  08-11-11 :  06.40 GMT

DATA ALERT - Latest data indicates the ECB bought EUR9.5bn in peripheral bonds last week from EUR4bn previously which shows how much stress there is given that yields still increased. Equity markets prove resilient early in the US session which prevents a renewed EUR/USD decline to below the 1.37 level.  07-11-11 :  14.40 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Greece will have a new government of national unity (sic) with the opposition playing a role and Papandreou set to resign. Greece threatened to be overshadowed by Italy as Prime Minister Berlusconi's troubles deepen. EUR/USD, so far, unable to hold above the 1.38 level.   07-11-11 : 07.20 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Headline payrolls weaker than expected at 80,000, but upward revision to September and lower unemployment nullify effect. Peripheral Euro-zone yields back in focus as Italian yields back to 6.30%. Capital repatriation must be what is keeping the Euro higher.   04-11-11 : 12.55 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Latest US payroll data due in 20 minutes. Needs to be outside a 65-130,000 range to have a big impact. Greece circus continues with parliamentary vote, but the real battle remains Italy. EU has days at most to stabilise Italy as capital continues to head for the exits.  04-11-11 : 12.10 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro rallied again on another short squeeze and there were also suspicions of further capital repatriation which boosted the currency. Another very choppy session in prospect on Friday, especially with the latest US payroll data also due for release.  04-11-11 : 03.45 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - ECB cuts interest rates by 0.25% to 1.25%. Very choppy conditions as Greek rumours continue in rapid succession. ECB press conference soon. Euro will rally hard if the peripheral bond purchases are expanded.  03-11-11 : 13.10 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Risk conditions deteriorate again in Asia on Thursday as Germany and France threaten to block loan payments to Greece until it decides whether it wants to stay in the Euro-zone. Looks like the 6th loan tranche will not be paid until December. Can Greece really last that long?   03-11-11 : 03.30 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - USD drifts weaker ahead of the FOMC interest rate decision and statement with some dollar longs taken off given the possibility of a more dovish than expected Fed. If the Fed holds steady, then the dollar should be able to regain some ground.  02-11-11 : 15.50 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Markets manage to find a steadier tone during the Asian session on Wednesday, but underlying tensions surrounding the Euro-zone remain extremely high. EUR/USD back above 1.37, but looking uncomfortable. Volatility remains a big threat during the European session.  02-11-11 : 05.00 GMT

DATA ALERT - The US PMI manufacturing index dipped to 50.8 from 51.6 previously. The prices index fell to below the 50 level while orders were slightly above. Data likely to hurt risk appetite slightly, but Europe will dominate for now.  01-11-11 :  14.00 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro and risk appetite remain under pressure as political tensions increase and bourses subjected to heavy selling. Greek referendum plan isn't going to fly - government faces collapse within the next 24 hours. .  01-11-11 : 12.10 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - A fresh outbreak of market chaos is in prospect after Greece calls a referendum on the revised aid package. Bondholders are very unlikely to accept a deal on write-downs while such uncertainty continues and the whole package is likely to unravel. The EU must abandon Greece and concentrate on Italy as this is where the true Euro battle will be won or lost. EUR/USD dips to below 1.3850. Reserve Bank of Australia cuts interest rates by 0.25% to 4.50%.  01-11-11 : 03.35 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - EUR/USD moves weaker again towards the European close as doubts over Italy increase. Important to note that this is only a Euro move. USD is actually weaker against Sterling and barely holding its own against the commodity currencies.  31-10-11 : 15.45 GMT

MARKET ALERT - Very big yen moves as the Japanese Finance Ministry finally pushes the intervention button and the Bank of Japan intervenes aggressively to weaken the Japanese currency. Dollar reaches highs near 78.90 before stalling with big yen losses on the crosses. Wider dollar support as the Euro retreats to below 1.41.  31-10-11 :  02.20 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - A weak Italian bond auction and a retreat in European bourses triggers a mood of greater caution, but the Euro is still find solid buying support on dips as the dollar remains out of favour. Position adjustment in US session should help show how many Euro shorts have already exited.  28-10-11 : 12.05 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro peaked close to 1.4250 against the dollar on Thursday with a big sell0off in the US dollar as risk appetite improved. There was a limited retreat during the Asian session and volatility will remain an important near-term threat.  28-10-11 : 05.20 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - After a period of consolidation, Euro rallies again in line with risk appetite and pushes to highs above 1.4120 as markets look to flush out further stop-loss Euro buy orders. EU must be happy, but will they still be upbeat in a few days time? 27-10-11 : 13.20 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Relief over the EU Summit triggers dollar losses as the Euro rallied to the 1.40 area as risk appetite also improves. Significantly, the Euro has not rallied against the Swiss franc during the Asian session. 27-10-11 : 06.15 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - EUR/USD again hit selling pressure above 1.3950 on Wednesday and retreated sharply to lows near 1.38 on expectations that the Summit starting shortly will not be able to deliver a 'big bang' approach that eases market fears over the debt crisis. Further volatility is guaranteed over the next few hours. 26-10-11 :  16.45 GMT

MARKET ALERT - High volatility as the ECOFIN meeting for Wednesday has been cancelled, but the EU summit still goes ahead as planned. EUR/USD drops to 1.3850 before bouncing back to 1.39.  25-10-11 :  13.50 GMT

MARKET ALERT - The Bank of Canada holds interest rates at 1.00% and lowers its growth forecasts for 2011 and 2012 and sees lower inflation next year which has some negative impact on the Canadian dollar with the US currency also looking to rebound from a brief test of support below parity. Now at 1.0060  25-10-11 :  13.00 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Markets still want to take a positive attitude towards risk and the Euro strengthens again to the 1.3950 area before hitting further resistance. The dollar generally is not looking comfortable, but complacency over risk conditions would be extremely dangerous.  25-10-11 :  06.10 GMT

DATA ALERT - The individual Euro-zone PMI indices were mixed, but the outcome overall was a decline to the lowest level since July 2009 with the manufacturing and services-sector indices both below 47.5. The data takes the steam out of the Euro's rally against the dollar with selling above 1.39.   24-10-11 :  08.20 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro-zone leaders are continuing to churn through the EFSF possibilities in an attempt to find political harmony and compromise. Dollar generally struggling under the weight of existing positioning as markets don't want to be caught out in thin liquidity later in the European session.  21-10-11 :  12.50 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro recovered from lows hit below 1.3660 following reports that there would be no final agreement on any of the key measures at Sunday's EU Summit. Resistance has so far been high in the 1.38 area in choppy trading conditions.  Caution will be an extremely important element during Friday's trading with markets also looking closely at French and Italian bond yields.  21-10-11 :  06.45 GMT

DATA ALERT - Stronger than expected release from the Philadelphia Fed index which moves to +6.9 for October from -17.5 previously. Should help risk appetite as choppy conditions continue. Mixed dollar impact as US fears will also tend to ease slightly which is dollar positive.  20-10-11 :  14.00 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Choppy trading still very much a feature as the Euro moves strongly higher on a report that the EFSF will be able to buy secondary bonds in certain circumstances. Slightly strange as this was always in the July deal, but markets very jumpy. US data releases will need to be some distance from expectations to have much impact.  20-10-11 :  12.05 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro has been subjected to renewed selling pressure as volatility remains high. Disagreement between France and Germany over the EFSF, allied with Eu and IMF disagreement over Greek debt levels and served to undermine confidence again. EUR/USD tests below 1.37.  20-10-11 :  07.55 GMT

DATA ALERT - Stand-out figure in the US data is a jump in housing starts to 0.66mn in the latest month from 0.57mn. Enthusiasm for the housing sector will be tempered by a decline in permits, but risk appetite should hold firm, especially with core CPI coming in at 0.1%.   19-10-11 :  12.30 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro recovers from selling pressure following Moody's downgrading of Spain's credit rating. Technical levels being probed in tentative trading with a reluctance to commit ahead of key Euro-zone events.  19-10-11 :  08.15 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro generally remains under pressure on renewed Euro-zone fears and Moody's decision to put France's credit ratings under review , but finds support in the 1.3660 area and rebounds to 1.37. UK inflation at 3-year peak of 5.2% keeps the squeeze on consumer spending.  18-10-11 :  12.40 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Dollar continues to find some significant respite following success in holding support. EUR/USD near 1.3750 from early high above 1.39 as risk conditions less favourable with weak New York manufacturing data offering no support to risk.  17-10-11 :  14.45 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro maintains a strong tone on further optimism that a solution to the Euro-zone debt crisis can be achieved. The main story is actually a weaker dollar as long positions are scaled back. Markets entering a crucial phase, not least with important technical US support levels under threat.  17-10-11 :  08.15 GMT

DATA ALERT - US retail sales data stronger than expected with a 1.1% monthly increase for September from revised 0.3% previously. Solid underlying gain as well and the immediate reaction will be to boost risk appetite. Also increases the chances of another squeeze on short Euro positions later in US session.  14-10-11 :  12.35 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro again hits resistance above 1.38 against the dollar as another credit rating downgrade, this time for Spain, dampens confidence. The Euro rally has been built on little more than hope and will be very vulnerable if there are renewed fears surrounding the financial sector..  14-10-11 :  07.15 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro struggling to hold a position above 1.38 against the dollar as the ECB warns that private-sector involvement in the debt crisis (taking bigger write-downs) will have a negative impact on the banking sector.  13-10-11 :  08.15 GMT

MARKET ALERT - Euro continued to advance strongly in Europe and the general theme of risk on illustrated by a breakout in the yen which weakens to 77.20 against the dollar. EU banking proposals will be watched closely and due for release imminently. High volatility still likely to be a key feature.  12-10-11 :  13.00 GMT

MARKET ALERT - Euro pushed sharply higher in Europe with a move above 1.37 against the dollar. Some positive remarks from Rehn and Trichet, but move primarily looks to be big funds trying to (and succeeding) in triggering stop losses on Euro shorts.  12-10-11 :  08.20 GMT

MARKET ALERT - After a long wait, Slovakia finally votes and the EFSF vote is defeated which also means the government falls. A new vote will have to be held under the caretaker government later this week. Euro drops to 1.3640 against the dollar from 1.3675.  11-10-11 :  14.20 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Choppy trading in Europe as Euro generally weaker. Greek troika suggests that next loan payment should be made. Still waiting for Slovakia vote. Evidence suggests that there will be an initial rejection and then approval, supported by the opposition. Weak Euro bounce likely.  11-10-11 :  12.15 GMT

ANALYSIS - The Euro Summit has been postponed until October 23rd from the 17th. The fact that it is being held on a Sunday is potentially very significant as it suggests that they will consider important market-making moves while the markets are closed.  11-10-11 :  06.30 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro continues to gain during the US session and pushes to a high above 1.3620 as short covering persists. Dollar also sharply lower against the Swiss franc, but the move is likely to run out of steam close to current levels as there are still massive barriers to sustained Euro support.  10-10-11 :  13.15 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro rallies in Asia on Monday as markets look to put a positive spin on the Merkel-Sarkozy talks. Euro shorts also still looking extended which is helping the currency as risk appetite also makes a cautious recovery.  10-10-11 :  06.25 GMT

MARKET ALERT - After stronger than expected US payroll data boosts risk appetite allowed the Euro to challenge levels above 1.35 against the dollar, Euro undermined by Fitch credit-rating downgrades of Spain and Italy. EUR/USD drops sharply to 1.3420.  07-10-11 :  14.20 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Strong employment data boosts CAD, otherwise market inevitably subdued ahead of payroll data. Whisper is for a stronger than expected figure and this is the most likely outcome, but risk appetite will take a big hit if there is a weaker than expected print.  07-10-11 :  12.10 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Risk appetite has stabilised following the ECB meeting and the Euro has gained ground, but fear could return very quickly. EUR/USD currently just below 1.3450. The banking sector will be a key focus and 12 UK institutions have had their credit ratings cut.  07-10-11 :  07.55 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - ECB concentrating on technical measures so far, confirming the resumption of covered-bond buying together with 12-month and 13-month repo operations to boost market liquidity. EUR/USD hovering just below 1.33 after bouncing from lows near 1.3250. Rate decision not unanimous so there were calls for rates to be cut which will tend to undermine the Euro. 06-10-11 :  13.00 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Bank of England surprises the market with an even more aggressive than expected GBP75bn increase in quantitative easing to GBP275bn which pushes Sterling sharply weaker. ECB leaves rates on hold, but there is a strong probability that they will hint in the press conference over a rate cut at next month's meeting.  06-10-11 :  12.10 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Consolidation has been the theme today as markets wait for the ECB and Bank of England interest rate decisions. Commodity currencies maintain a stronger tone, but may be near their limit.  06-10-11 :  08.15 GMT

DATA ALERT - The US ISM index fell slightly to 53.0 for September from 53.3 previously. The components were mixed as the orders component rose solidly. In contrast, the employment index dropped to below the 50.0 level which will increase doubts surrounding Friday's payroll report. Unlikely to be a significant boost to risk appetite from the data, but it does offer some hope.   05-10-11 : 14.00 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro rallied strongly on the back of hopes for more ambitious plans to rescue the European banking sector and there was a round of short covering as key technical support held. At this stage, it will be very difficult to sustain a rally   05-10-11 :  06.45 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro trying to find some support, but rallies fading quickly as environment remains hostile. Equity markets on the defensive and commodity prices also dipping with Brent crude below US$1oo which is leading to further defensive dollar demand. Trichet needs to offer reassurance, but has few cards to play  04-10-11 :  12.10 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro briefly rallied during the Asian session on Tuesday, but gains were reversed quickly as fear surrounding the Euro-zone banking sector quickly took over. EUR/USD back below the 1.32 level.  04-10-11 :  07.35 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - No respite for the Euro during the US session with relentless selling and a move to nine-month lows below 1.32 as risk appetite also continues to deteriorate. Given the amount of bad news priced in, there should be scope for a limited corrective recovery.  03-10-11 :  21.35 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro remains under sustained pressure during the Asian session on Monday as a further increase in fear surrounding the financial sector and Greece continue to trigger capital outflows.  Long-term Euro support levels coming into focus and EUR/USD at 8-month low near 1.3320. 03-10-11 :  15.35 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Quarter-end positioning is liable to dominate from now on and there should be an element of dollar resilience, although the flows should not be aggressively in the US favour.  29-09-11 :  15.35 GMT

MARKET ALERT - Euro fails to gain additional support from German EFSF approval as favourable outcome priced in. Merkel secured a majority of her own coalition - just - with 315 votes in favour compared with the minimum 311 needed. Reality bites as markets realise this is by no means sufficient.  29-09-11 :  11.15 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - EUR/USD bounces strongly from support in the 1.3525 area and pushes to highs near 1.3650 on expectations that the German parliament will approve additional EFSF powers.  Opposition SPD indicate they will support the measure, but Euro will then be vulnerable to heavy profit taking.  29-09-11 :  07.50 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Markets trying to keep a positive tone and try to advance on confirmation that the troika will return to Greece on Thursday, but there are too many uncertainties and divisions for the Euro to hold gains. 28-09-11 :  12.05 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Equity markets are unable to sustain the gains and the Euro weakens back towards the 1.3550 area before finding support. Unless the Finns throw a surprise EFSF no into the equation, Wednesday should be a day of consolidation.  28-09-11 :  05.20 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Risk appetite remains stronger during the European and US sessions with gains in equity markets and particular strong gains in banking stocks. EUR/USD tests highs near 1.3650 and GBP/USD at 1.5680.  No point in further buying at these levels.  27-09-11 :  14.25 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - After a further setback in US trading, the Euro has rallied again in Asia on Tuesday with a move to above 1.3550 against the dollar. Choppy trading conditions likely to dominate in the short term.  27-09-11 :  02.45 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Big rally in risk appetite during the European session with stock markets higher and notable gains in the German banks. Should hep Wall Street get off to a positive start, but momentum liable to fade quickly.  26-09-11 :  12.00 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro comes under fresh selling pressure and dips to new 8-month lows below 1.33 while commodity currencies are also subjected to heavy selling pressure as copper futures are suspended limit down in Shanghai with the Australian dollar trading as as low as 0.9625.  26-09-11 :  06.45 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro-zone and G20 members have some sort of plan, but the timescale is hopelessly optimistic as there is no possibility that they will be given six weeks to finalise a plan. Euro very quickly surrenders initial gains and weakens to the 1.3410 against the dollar as risk appetite remains very fragile in Asian trading on Monday.  26-09-11 :  04.00 GMT

ANALYSIS - The IMF and global finance leaders face a tough weekend ahead if they are to avoid another dismal market session on Monday. They could exchange rate target bands as one policy idea. Read more: 10 policy options for this weekend - Time for the Mandarin Accord?  24-09-11 :  06.00 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro unable to push back above 1.3550 and retreats to test support below 1.3440. A familiar pattern of falling equity markets, weakness in key banking stocks and fears over an imminent Greek default doing the damage to risk appetite. A very nervous US session ahead.  23-09-11 :  12.25 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro manages to rebound back to above the 1.35 area on speculation that there will be urgent recapitalisation of the weakest European banks and there was pressure for short covering. It will be much more difficult to secure durable relief given that underlying stresses are continuing to intensify.  23-09-11 :  02.45 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Risk aversion and fear in full flow on Thursday as equity markets are subjected to sustained downward pressure, commodity prices fall sharply and European banking fears increase. EUR/USD tests lows near 1.34 as markets sense the ECB will have to go for an emergency rate cut. AUD and CAD also under heavy selling pressure.  22-09-11 :  12.55 GMT

DATA ALERT - Disappointing reading for French manufacturing PMI at 47.3 from 49.1 previously and services sector also weaker. No Euro support from the data  22-09-11 : 07.00 GMT

DATA ALERT - The flash China PMI manufacturing index comes in at 49.4 from 49.9 previously, disappointing market rumours of a stronger number. The data will not trigger any improvement in risk appetite with emerging Asia likely to remain on the defensive.  22-09-11 : 02.30 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Fed decision to deploy operation twist and no other measures at this time triggered a big disappointment in equity markets and also pushed the dollar sharply higher with the trade-weighted index at the highest level since March. EUR/USD falls to lows near 1.3550 and GBP/USD below 1.55. Bernanke paying the price for his consistently dovish stance in the past as markets anticipated more aggressive action.  22-09-11 :  02.00 GMT

MARKET ALERT - ECB helps the Euro rise firmly off lows of 1.3630 against the dollar with reports of further peripheral bond buying and the acceptance of a wider range of collateral in ECB tender operations.  21-09-11 :  13.20 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Sterling remains under pressure following Bank of England minutes which showed the bank very close to sanctioning additional QE and is re-testing 1.5620. Euro also weaker as risk appetite fades into the New York open with European bank stocks again under pressure and commodity currencies also weaker. If the Fed provides no support risk conditions liable to deteriorate sharply.  21-09-11 :  12.15 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro drifts weaker into the European open with confidence still extremely fragile as banking-sector fears persist. An extremely important question is whether the Greek government has any effective mandate for further austerity.  21-09-11 :  07.35 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Greece life-support machine is still switched on as a second round of troika talks are concluded. The full IMF mission to Greece is due to resume next week, but there are still likely to be extremely serious internal divisions as the current policies are completely unsustainable.  21-09-11 :  03.20 GMT

MARKET ALERT - Swiss franc spikes lower on speculation that the SNB will raise the Euro floor to 1.25 from 1.20 now. Rumour also helps EUR/USD push to test resistance above 1.3720. Looks unlikely as a short-term policy move. US housing data has no real impact.  20-09-11 :  12.50 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro finds a solid short-covering rally as bids below 1.36 encourage profit taking on short positions. Euro also supported by reports that the ECB is again buying peripheral debt and near 1.37 as equity markets also try to rebound.  20-09-11 :  08.00 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes confirm that the bank is in wait and see mode to assess the impact of a global downturn on the Australian economy. Euro again finds some support below 1.36 following Italy's rating downgrade with Greek debt talks set to continue on Tuesday.  20-09-11 :  12.10 GMT

DATA ALERT - The ECB bought EUR9.8bn in peripheral bonds in the latest week from EUR14bn previously, confirming that the pace of buying slowed. Equity markets under pressure which is dragging EUR/USD and GBP/USD to daily lows.  19-09-11 : 13.30 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro unable to regain the 1.37 level and retreating back towards lows as New York opens. Greece still the centre of attention with the troika conference call delayed until 16.00 GMT. Expect a rumour-filled few hours with the Euro generally under pressure.  19-09-11 :  12.10 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro rallies from lows below 1.3650, but gains stifled by further downward pressure on European equity markets as the Dax index falls by over 2%. Lots of chatter from Greece as they look to defend their record. 19-09-11 :  07.50 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - European fears have dominated Asian trading so far on Monday with the Euro gapping lower and unable to find any fundamental backing as Greek fears continue to dominate with a test of support in the 1.3650 region against the dollar. 19-09-11 :  03.00 GMT

MARKET PREVIEW - All eyes will again be on Greece with a Cabinet meeting on Sunday and Troika conference call on Monday to discus fresh budget cuts. Is this the moment, Greece decides to cut loose and default? A very nervous 24 hours is in prospect.  18-09-11 :  15.15 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - Euro dips lower as stops below 1.3780 are triggered. Succession of comments from EU officials following initial ECOFIN meeting offers nothing particularly new, but they won't be able to say anything earth shattering until markets are closed.  16-09-11 :  12.15 GMT

MARKET UPDATE - The Euro is unable to hold its best levels and dips to test support below 1.38 as yield support still lacking. There is also nervousness that the European move to bolster bank defences will result in a Greek debt default this weekend.  16-09-11 :  08.20 GMT

ANALYSIS - A worrying element in the decision to increase and co-ordinate dollar swap operations is that there wern't supposed to be any liquidity problems. This suggests that underlying stresses are worse than realised and will maintain a mood of nervousness. 15-09-11 :  16.05 GMT

MARKET ALERT - Major central banks announce that we will launch new co-ordinated repo operations. The move will ease the dollar funding shortage and in that context is dollar negative, especially as immediate Euro fears will ease, but will not deal with underlying solvency issues. USD weakens sharply against Euro before recovering slightly.  15-09-11 :  13.05 GMT